When will be the highest oil production?

Two different studies with each other at approx try to fix the date of reaching the peak of oil production. Besides not being now more sustainable from an environmental point of view, when it will begin to dry up the black gold will not even be an economic point of view: the business models will have to adapt or find alternatives to the ever-increasing cost.

The first, published in the journal "Energy & Fuels", is aimed at developing a more accurate predictive model of the Hubbert model, which document is based. Researchers at Kuwait University and the Kuwaiti Oil Company have suggested 2014 as the date after which begins the decline in oil production in anticipation of ten years before the date fixed so far.

The Hubbert model has in fact proved unsuitable to study the new and complex multiple cycles of production in some countries, heavily influenced by technological and political factors.

The second, commissioned by the entrepreneur Richard Branson to his group "Industry Taskforce for Peak Oil and Energy Security", entitled "Oil Crunch Report," set the date "potentially" in 2015. Branson obviously wants to continue his business in the overhead lines beyond that date, and to do so has already successfully experimented with the use of biofuels in a Virgin Airlines flight from London to Amsterdam.

That 2014 is the date or not highlight, automotive manufacturers, institutions, can not compete effectively with this reality.

Being unprepared and without an energy strategy could be costly at all.

 

22/03/2010

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Translated via software

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Source:

Italian version of ReteIngegneri.it